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Goodwin 2019 — Predicting Aggression to Others in Youth with ASD Using a Wearable Biosensor

Citation: Goodwin, M.S., Mazefsky, C.A., Ioannidis, S., et al. (2019). Autism Research, 12(8), 1286-1296.
DOI: 10.1002/aur.2151
Type: Peer-reviewed study

Key Contribution

First study to demonstrate that wearable biosensor data can predict aggression in youth with ASD minutes before it occurs. Person-dependent AUC 0.84.

Design

  • 20 youth with ASD (6-17 yrs, 75% male, 85% minimally verbal)
  • 69 naturalistic observation sessions in inpatient psychiatry unit
  • Wrist-worn biosensor (cardiovascular + EDA + accelerometry)
  • Ridge-regularized logistic regression
  • 3-min context window → predict 1 min before aggression

Key Results

  • Global model AUC: 0.71
  • Person-dependent model AUC: 0.84
  • Biosensor data contributed unique predictive value beyond temporal features
  • Model performance improved with more training data, not longer observation

Impact

Seminal paper spawning a line of research. Directly replicated and extended by Imbiriba 2023 (70 participants, 4 sites). Data available via SFARI Base.

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