Rumble Detection Physiology
Definition
Rumble is the precursor phase to a meltdown — elevated arousal before the crisis threshold is crossed. Rumble Prediction IS Meltdown Prediction (they are not separate concepts).
Physiological Markers
| Signal | Rumble | Meltdown |
|---|---|---|
| HR | 105-129 bpm (rising) | 130-180 bpm (sustained) |
| HRV (RMSSD) | <25 ms, declining | <10 ms |
| EDA | Elevated, increasing SCR frequency | Saturated, chaotic |
| Slope | 5-15 bpm/min | Plateau |
| Recovery | Possible with intervention | >20 min required |
Detection Windows
- 5s window: Instantaneous detection for real-time alerting
- 30s window: Rumble detection — rolling mean features
- 300s window: Trend analysis for state classification
Prediction Horizon
- Goodwin: 1 min before aggression (AUC 0.84 person-dependent)
- Imbiriba: 3 min before SIB/ED/ATO (AUC 0.80)
- REACT: 20s before agitation (F1 68.20%)
Linked To
- Physiology: meltdown-signature, hot-vs-cold-blooded
- Papers: goodwin-2019, imbiriba-2023, khan-2024-react
- Charts: crown-jewel-mvp.md