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Potter 2026 — Temporal Point Process Modeling of Aggressive Behavior Onset in Autistic Youth

Citation: Potter, M., Everett, M., Singh, A., et al. (2026). Scientific Reports, 16(1).
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-46996-8
Type: Peer-reviewed study

Key Contribution

First application of temporal point processes (Hawkes processes) to model timing of aggressive behavior onsets in ASD. Moves beyond binary classification to probabilistic forecasting of when aggression will occur.

Key Results

  • Self-exciting Hawkes processes outperform Poisson models
  • Captures irregular, clustered nature of aggression onsets
  • Provides interpretable probabilistic forecasts along a time continuum

Relevance

Complements binary classification approaches (Goodwin, Imbiriba) with temporal forecasting. Could be combined with Meltdown Minder's detection to predict when a rumble will escalate.

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